Aleppo can be a turning point in Syria's civil war

Russia's help in recapturing Aleppo is only the beginning of Moscow's support for the Assad regime.

Smoke rises from buildings in the area of Ajuziyah following government air strikes on the outskirts of Aleppo [AFP

Luke Coffey is a research fellow specialising in transatlantic and Eurasian security at a Washington DC based think tank. He previously served as a special adviser to the British defence secretary and was a commissioned officer in the United States army.

@lukedcoffey

During the 48 hours of the failed Syrian ceasefire talks in Geneva last week, Russian planes conducted 320 air strikes in Aleppo. In truth, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was never serious about a ceasefire, and neither was his partner in crime Vladimir Putin, the Russian president.
Their strategy was to draw out the talks as long as possible to give Russian-backed Syrian forces more time to make important battlefield gains. Thanks to Russia's air support, Syrian forces are advancing faster than anyone expected on Aleppo. After only two days the talks collapsed and tens of thousands of refugees are now fleeing towards Turkey.
Once again, Russia and its allies have come out on top.

Syrian government forces scale up their assault to recapture Aleppo

As Russian air strikes assist Assad's forces in retaking Aleppo, the world should consider two things. First, the recapture of Aleppo would make it highly unlikely that Assad and his cronies would return to the negotiating table. In Putin's eyes the world is a zero-sum game and in Syria he is winning … not negotiating.
Second, Russia's help in recapturing Aleppo is only the beginning, not the pinnacle, of Moscow's support for the Assad regime. It is true that the Russians have helped the Syrian military to recapture smaller and less significant parts of the country from rebel forces, but Aleppo is different.

Turning point

Before the civil war Aleppo was one of the largest cities in the Levant and served as the economic heart of Syria. Bringing Aleppo back under regime control - no matter how devastated and no matter what the cost might be - is a turning point in this civil war